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☆ Gauging the risk of contagion from NYCB and commercial real estate woes
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The latest concern threatening regional banks started on Jan. 31, when New York Community Bancorp. reported unexpected fourth quarter loss and a large loan loss reserve against futures losses, due in part to the bank's commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. One worry is that the NYCB credit downgrade could spur ratings agencies to take a closer look at other banks, or cause clients to again pull deposits out of regional banks. Determining exactly how unique NYCB's exposure to commercial real estate is will be a key focus for investors and analysts in coming weeks. A note on Wednesday from Wolfe Research analysts focused on banks and commercial real estate showed that regional banks have in general reduced their commercial real estate exposure over the past 15 years.

Persons: NYCB, Ian Lyngen, hasn't, Lyngen, D.A, Davidson, Peter Winter, Winter, Macrae Sykes, Banks, They're, Sykes, Wells Fargo, Jerome Powell, Bond, Tom Fitzpatrick, RJ O'Brien, Fitzpatrick, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investors, New York Community Bancorp, Moody's, Street, Silicon Valley Bank, BMO, Treasury, Wolfe Research, UBS, Gabelli, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Wells

☆ The US economy is doing well. President Biden wants to know why so many Americans are still feeling bad
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Mj Lee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That has prompted President Joe Biden to repeatedly ask his advisers: Why then are so many Americans still not feeling great about the economy? While inflation has eased in recent months, prices on most goods are still higher than they were in the spring of 2021. Still, Biden’s economic advisers are increasingly telling the president in private that they feel optimistic about the direction things are headed. Historic-high prices that plagued the first few years of the Biden administration continue to moderate, all while economic growth is outpacing expectations. If those trend lines continue, they have cautiously told Biden, consumer sentiment, too, should begin to course-correct.

Persons: Joe Biden, Inflation, Biden, ‘ Sir, we’ll, “, ”, SSRS, Donald Trump, –, ” Biden, – we’re, – Sen, Bob Casey of, greedflation Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, White, University of Michigan, Conference Board, New York Times, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Columbia , South Carolina, America, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Las Vegas, American

☆ UBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUBS says the Indian rupee is one of its currency 'top picks' for this yearTan Teck Leng of UBS Global Wealth Management says it's "one of our favorite currencies to play the yield carry trades this year."

Persons: Tan Teck Leng Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management

☆ Small-cap stocks are the cheapest they've been since 2000 and are an under-the-radar way to profit from AI, a strategy chief predicts. Here are 5 ways to play their upcoming rally.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

A soft landing would greatly boost small caps since they're economically sensitive, meaning they tend to thrive in expansions and fall during contractions. Marcelli also made note of smaller companies' weaker balance sheets, though those are arguably accounted for in valuations. With that said, those positive forces appear to be intact, so small caps could finally break out. Instead of selling AI chips or products, smaller companies can enhance their productivity by using the technology, the strategy chief said. 5 sectors where small caps can thriveWithin small caps, Temple said he's less focused on what sector a company falls into and more concerned with whether that firm is financially healthy.

Persons: haven't, Russell, Marcelli, Ronald Temple, Temple, couldn't, there's, Jack Janasiewicz, Janasiewicz, he's, you've, I'd, they've Organizations: Business, Yahoo Finance, UBS Global Wealth Management, Lazard Asset Management, Temple, Reserve, Savings, Nvidia, Devices, Microsoft

☆ A 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA 'Goldilocks scenario' will hinge a lot on what the Fed says, strategist saysKiran Ganesh, multi asset strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, says "if you get a combination of strong growth, falling inflation and rapid interest rate cuts from the Fed, then that's what is going to take to move the market higher from here."

Persons: Kiran Ganesh Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed

The United States has seen a steady decline in the rate of inflation, and yet many American voters are still upset over the cost of daily life. To understand this perception gap, Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, argues, we should consider the cost of a Snickers Bar. In this audio essay, he explains that frequent smaller purchases — like candy bars — shape our experience of the economy. (A full transcript of this audio essay will be available midday on the Times website.)

Persons: Paul Donovan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, Times Locations: States

☆ Inflation is down sharply, but getting to exactly 2% will be tough
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-10 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, measured 2.6% annually in November. So, getting that number down to the Fed’s 2% target should happen in no time, right? That’s because much of the run-up in inflation came from pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions and unusual spikes in demand. The reason is that as inflation cools more, the remaining components that work to keep inflation above the Fed’s target are increasingly “sticky,” meaning they’re the least responsive to changes in market conditions. And it’s so far, so good.”That said, though it’s not the Fed’s go-to inflation gauge, Thursday’s CPI report showed that the road to 2% could come with more bumps.

Persons: ”, John Cochrane, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, That’s, Powell, Cochrane, “, ” Paul Donovan, ” Powell, I’d, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Hoover Institute, “, University of Chicago, CNN, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: New York, EY

☆ New billionaires getting rich via inheritance rather than entrepreneurship in 'great wealth transfer'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A new wave of billionaires acquired more wealth through inheritance than entrepreneurship during the last year as a "great wealth transfer" picks up steam, a new report by UBS found. Fifty-three heirs received a total of $150.8 billion, which is higher than the $140.7 billion brought in by 84 new self-made billionaires, the report shows. "The great wealth transfer is gaining significant momentum," Benjamin Cavalli, head of UBS global wealth management strategic clients, told reporters in a briefing on Wednesday. Overall billionaire wealth is recovering, with the number of billionaires being up by 7% in the 12 months to early April of 2023, the UBS analysis showed. Billionaire wealth rose by 9% in this time and ended at around $12 trillion in nominal terms.

Persons: Benjamin Cavalli Organizations: UBS Locations: South Dock, Wharf, London, United Kingdom

☆ UBS sees shift in new billionaires away from entrepreneurs to inherited wealth
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The number of billionaires rose by 7% to 2,544 people globally, UBS said in its 2023 Billionaires Ambitions Report, with their total worth rising by 9% to an estimated $12 trillion. For the first time since the study started in 2015, billionaires accumulated more wealth via inheritance than through their own business activities. Among the 137 new billionaires, a total of $150.8 billion was inherited by 53 heirs over the last year, exceeding the 84 new self-made billionaires' total of $140.7 billion, the bank said. The study highlighted a trend away from self-made billionaires, created by the tech industry boom and symbolised by the rise of Tesla boss Elon Musk and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. Still, despite the large inherited wealth, this did not necessarily mean a new generation of super-rich 20 somethings.

Persons: Denis Balibouse, Benjamin Cavalli, Cavalli, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Michael Viana, King Charles, John Revill, David Evans Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Rights, UBS Global Wealth Management, Amazon, Thomson Locations: Swiss, Zurich, Switzerland, flotations

☆ Investors hesitant to move back into China markets, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors hesitant to move back into China markets, UBS saysEva Lee, head of Greater China equities at UBS Global Wealth Management, said investors are still not fully sure of China markets due to structural issues.

Persons: Eva Lee Organizations: UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: China

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Signs the U.S. stock market rally is broadening from the so-called Magnificent Seven of mega-cap growth and technology companies is bolstering investor hopes for a rally through year-end. In one encouraging sign, about 55% of the S&P 500 were trading above their 200-day moving averages as of Monday. Among other signs, the equal-weight S&P 500 (.SPXEW) -- a proxy for the average stock in the index -- rose 3.24% last week. The equal-weight S&P 500 is trading at a 5% discount to its 10-year average forward price-to-earnings ratio, according to Edward Jones. Still, there are reasons to think that the market rally is not on the verge of a sustained broadening.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Adam Turnquist, Meta, Russell, Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones, ” Mahajan, Steve Sosnick, Jason Draho, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Megan Davies, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, LPL, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Interactive Brokers, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

☆ Buy these 33 top-rated stocks to build a diversified, downturn-resistant portfolio in 2024, according to UBS
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Economic growth should persist in 2024, albeit at a weaker pace, according to top strategists at UBS Global Wealth Management (GWM). "We do see the savings rate — the recent savings rate — as unsustainably low, and we expect it to rise over time," said Brian Rose, a senior economist and investment strategist at UBS GWM, during the webinar. "And really, the base of the economy depends very heavily on what happens to the savings rate." Rose continued: "If the savings rate just gradually drifts higher over time, then we can have a soft landing. 33 top stocks across sectorsWhile UBS is constructive about 2024, its strategists think investors should prepare for anything.

Persons: Solita Marcelli, Brian Rose, Rose, there's, Marcelli, Daniel Scansaroli, Nicolas Le Roux, Le Roux, financials Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, US, UBS GWM, Federal Reserve, UBS GWM's, Companies Locations: Americas, Ukraine, Israel, Europe, China, Japan, Australia

☆ Buy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason Draho
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBuy quality fixed income, sell credit risk fixed income: UBS Global Wealth Management's Jason DrahoJason Draho, UBS head of asset allocation, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss his market moves and Fed expectation.

Persons: Jason Draho Jason Draho Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS

☆ 'Right now is not the time to be a hero': Top investing minds at $1.4 trillion T. Rowe Price warn that there's serious recession risk in 2024 — but these 4 tech stocks will still dominate
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Several large investment firms are writing off a recession in the US in 2024 as growth holds up and inflation steadily declines, but T. Rowe Price thinks that optimism may be misplaced. While T. Rowe Price doesn't have an official call on the economy, the brightest minds at the $1.4 trillion Baltimore-based firm urged investors to be cautious at a mid-November conference. However, T. Rowe Price is skeptical that the Fed will end its fight against inflation anytime soon. T. Rowe Price found that through October, those names rose 53.2% compared to a 1.2% year-to-date return for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Dom Rizzo, a portfolio manager of global technology equity strategy at T. Rowe Price, agreed that the Magnificent 7's momentum won't stop just because the group is pricey.

Persons: Rowe Price, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Rowe Price doesn't, We're, Tim Murray, Rowe Price's, Murray, We've, Rowe, Uruci, he's, it's, Tesla, let's, Dom Rizzo, Rizzo, septet, Santa, He's Organizations: Citi, UBS Global Wealth Management, Business, Federal Reserve, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, AMD Locations: Baltimore, Santa Clara

☆ Could see 10% upside for China markets in 2024: UBS Global Wealth Management
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCould see 10% upside for China markets in 2024: UBS Global Wealth ManagementTan Min Lan of UBS Global Wealth Management explains why she is positive on China for 2024, and shares other markets in Asia that look promising in the year ahead.

Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management Tan Min Lan Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: China, Asia

Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

The economy is likely already in recession and is expected to contract again next year. Shortly after being sworn in as economy minister, Massa in August 2022 pledged to stop printing money to fight inflation. "Markets will likely prefer a Milei victory simply because he is more credible on delivering the fiscal adjustment." "Every investor understands that the macroeconomic adjustments that Argentina needs will inevitably translate into short-term pain." For investors, Argentine stocks traded in New York (.MIAR00000PUS) have been a beacon of hope, up near 15% year to date.

Persons: Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Luis Robayo, Pilar Tavella, Alejo Czerwonko, Massa, Carlos de Sousa, UBS's, JPMorgan's Diego Celedon, Celedon, Rodrigo Campos, Adam Jourdan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: por la Patria, La Libertad, University of Buenos, Law School, Global, Peronist, Barclays, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Argentina, Monetary Fund, Itau, IMF, Emerging, UBS Global Wealth Management, Vontobel Asset Management, Argentine, UBS, Thomson Locations: Argentina, University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires Argentina, New York, Argentine, outperforming

☆ UBS projects inflation is coming to an end, but that's 'little comfort to households,' chief financial analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Jessica Dickler | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The prolonged period of high inflation may finally be coming to an end, according to an analysis of recent data by UBS global wealth management. In October, the consumer price index, a closely followed inflation gauge, increased 3.2% from 12 months earlier, down from 3.7% in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The report marked a significant improvement on the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% in June 2022. “By next spring, inflation will have slowed to a comfortable level for both the Fed and investors,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer of the Americas for UBS Wealth Management. “The strain on household budgets is real.”

Persons: ”, Solita Marcelli, Greg McBride Organizations: UBS, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Americas, UBS Wealth Management, Finance

☆ The Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed has overtightened, says UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul DonovanPaul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest CPI report, the outlook for rate hikes, and more.

Persons: UBS Global Wealth Management's Paul Donovan Paul Donovan, Steve Liesman Organizations: UBS Global Wealth, UBS Global Wealth Management

[1/5] A trader reacts as a screen displays the Fed rate announcement on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A benign U.S. inflation report is bolstering hopes that the Federal Reserve can bring down consumer prices without hurting the economy, a so-called Goldilocks environment that investors believe will benefit stocks and bonds. This does feel like a Goldilocks moment for the entire market.”The data fueled a powerful rally in stocks and bonds. The S&P 500 (.SPX) was up about 2% on the day, on track for its biggest one-day rise since January. Still, some investors believed it was too early to call a victory in the fight against inflation.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Eric Kuby, bearish, “, Daniel Kirsch, Piper Sandler, Thomas Hayes, ”, Brian Rose, Jamie Cox, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Davide Barbuscia, Ankika Biswas, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, North Star Investment Management Corp, Thomson Reuters, BofA's Global, Fed, Fund, UBS Global Wealth Management, Harris Financial, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Thomson Reuters United States, New York, Bengaluru

☆ UBS shares rise 3.5% as market focuses on strong underlying profit
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

UBS shares climbed on Tuesday morning after the Swiss banking giant resoundingly beat expectations for underlying profit. The bank recorded an underlying operating profit before tax of $844 million, well ahead of consensus expectations. Credit Suisse Wealth Management generated positive net new money inflows for the first time since the first quarter of 2022, contributing to inflows of $22 billion for UBS Global Wealth Management. Our clients have continued to place their trust and confidence in us, contributing to strong inflows across wealth management and our Swiss franchise," CEO Sergio Ermotti said in a statement. This is then slightly offset by heavier provisions," they noted, adding that the acceleration of Wealth Management net new money inflows in September was also "encouraging."

Persons: Sergio Ermotti Organizations: UBS, Credit Suisse, Reuters, Credit Suisse Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth Management, Group, Swiss, Citi, Management Locations: Swiss

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Stock investors see green light in falling Treasury yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The relationship between stocks and bonds has been a tight one in recent months, with equities falling as Treasury yields climbed to 16-year highs. Higher yields offer investment competition to stocks while also raising the cost of capital for companies and households. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has surged nearly 6% from its October lows. Draho expects the S&P 500 to trade between 4,200 and 4,600 until investors determine whether the economy will be able to avoid a recession. The S&P 500 was recently up more than 1% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jason Draho, Draho, Ryan Detrick, Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Louise Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, National Association of Active Investment, CFRA Research, Carson Investment Research, Fed, Apple Inc, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Treasuries

☆ Take advantage of this stock market correction and another quarter of strong earnings by making these 10 moves now, according to top strategists at 4 investment firms
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The S&P 500 is down 7% since the start of September and briefly entered correction territory from its summer high last week. However, strategists say these threats are mostly priced into stocks, but higher earnings aren't. After three straight quarters of contracting profits, both BofA and UBS expect earnings to grow at least 3% year-over-year in Q3. "Within the context of our expectations for a continued choppy backdrop, we are incrementally more positive," Lerner wrote in a late October note. Truist's more constructive view on equities is based on strong results so far in Q3, Lerner wrote.

Persons: Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian, Marcelli, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, Keith Lerner, Lerner, it's, Truist, Mark Haefele Organizations: Bank of America, UBS, Bank of America's, Equity, UBS Global Wealth Management, Federal Reserve, Israel, Oppenheimer Asset Management Locations: Israel, Ukraine, Truist, Real, Charlotte

☆ Investors on edge as Middle East conflict intensifies
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors have grown more worried about a widening conflict in recent days after the U.S. dispatched more military assets to the Middle East while Israel attacked targets in Gaza and Hamas supporters in Lebanon and Syria. Some investors also expect a widening conflict could prompt safe-haven buying of Treasuries. "However, an escalation of the conflict would likely shift attention away from monetary policy concerns and boost safe-haven demand for Treasuries." The Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) has climbed in the wake of the conflict and rose on Friday, approaching seven-month highs. The Federal Reserve is set to give its latest monetary policy statement on Wednesday, while Apple's quarterly results highlights another busy week of corporate reports.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, ”, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Brent, Peter Cardillo, Lewis Krauskopf, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, David Gregorio Our Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Hamas, Investors, U.S, Capital Economics, Spartan Capital Securities, UBS Global Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Gaza, East, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Treasuries, U.S

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